Links between climate change and recent events in Australia, in particular Victoria have begun to emerge in various media reports. With the death toll of the bushfires that have ravaged Victoria at almost 200 and many more unaccounted for, experts are warning that we can expect to see more of the same in the years to come.

Climatologist David Jones states “looking forward to 2009, 2010 the clearest indication is we’re going to have a warm year”¹ whilst Melbourne University’s Professor David Karoly said “the (current) heat is unusual, but it will become much more like the normal experience in 10 to 20 years”²

Saturday saw many temperature related records broken as Victoria and other parts of Australia sweltered in conditions that only exacerbated the bushfires ravaging so much of the state. Hopetoun in North West Victoria set a new state record at 48.8°C whilst Melbourne too had its hottest day on record reaching 46.4°C.  The IPCC stated in their 2007 assessment report  that it is very likely the frequency of extreme high daily temperatures in Australia will increase throughout the 21st century and likely that the risk of drought in southern areas will increase as well³. It is these weather conditions that contributed to many of the devastating bush fires across Victoria.

Dr Blair Trewin from the National Climate Centre said “when we look at the long-term drought over the last 10 to 12 years, the region which stands out as the most extreme is the belt around the northeast and east of Melbourne - Kinglake through Marysville to Warburton - and that is exactly the area that blew up big time”⁴.

Considering the predictions of the IPCC and the weather conditions we have begun to experience, we must now ensure we are able to adapt to, rather than just mitigate the effects of climate change. In a future that is both hotter and dryer than now, infrastructure will require design for increased heat stress and community fire plans will need to factor in potential fires of greater intensity, just to name two adaptations that will be required.

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